6928 N Duncan Ln

Run June 7, 2026 · rate 6.5% (Freddie 6.48% 6/4, Bankrate 6.53% 6/7/2026)

Price update (verified 2026-07-01): list is now $410,000 (was $415,000). The affordability math below was computed at the prior ask — the thin margins loosen slightly at the lower price, but re-run the eval to refresh it.

Listing facts (Zillow)

• ~$333/sqft (at the $410,000 list)
• Foothills/State St corridor.

County record — Ada County Assessor (the truth)

• List price is ~$18,900 (5%) ABOVE assessed value — priced over market, no equity cushion at purchase.

Up ~53% in six years. Budget for continued upward tax drift.

The homeowner’s exemption is ALREADY in this bill. Owner is a long-time individual resident; 2025 tax of $2,355.72 on a $379,400 assessed value is only ~0.62% effective — far below the ~0.9% un-exempted Boise norm. Back out the exemption and the gross levy is ~0.93%. So Eric, living here, inherits roughly the current exempted tax — no extra exemption savings to capture (unlike an investor-owned property). Still: FILE FOR THE EXEMPTION after closing; it does not transfer automatically with the sale.

Eric’s owner-occupant tax estimate (2026): taxable = $391,100 − $125k exemption cap = $266,100; × ~0.93% levy ≈ ~$2,470/yr ≈ ~$205/mo.

Affordability — VERDICT: FITS $2,500 at clean 20% down — the cash wall is gone

This is the candidate the new params change the most. At the old $90k / $2,000 it failed BOTH the payment and the cash test (couldn’t even reach 20% down). At $105k / $2,500, clean 20% down fits and the all-in lands under $2,500. The most expensive house on the board flips from a “no” to viable.

20% down (no PMI) — the only structure now needed

• 20% down = $83,000 → loan $332,000
• P&I at 6.5%: ~$2,099/mo
• Property tax (exemption applied): ~$205/mo
• Insurance: ~$110/mo
• HOA: $37/mo
• PMI: $0
• All-in: ~$2,451/mo → ~$49/mo UNDER $2,500 (and ~$451 OVER the old $2,000). Clears $2,500. ✓

Cash — now fits. $83,000 down + ~$12,450 closing (3%) ≈ $95,450 — inside the $105k fund, leaving ~$9,550 of cushion. This is the tightest cash entry of the batch and the highest all-in, but both clear: it’s the live ceiling of what the new params afford (cash maxes here at ~0.23×$415k).

Flags

• Highest price + highest payment on the board ($410,000 list — was $415k; ~$2,451/mo computed at the prior ask) — it clears $2,500, but only by ~$49 and with the thinnest cash cushion (~$9.5k left). No headroom for rate or cost surprises.
• Listed ~5% above assessed value — buying at/over market, modest but no equity cushion.
• No exemption upside — the tax here is already exemption-adjusted; there’s no hidden ~$1k/yr to recover (unlike the flips/rentals on the board).
• Fast-rising assessments (+53% in 6 yrs, no Idaho cap) → ongoing upward tax drift, which on the most expensive house also eats fastest into the thin $2,500 margin.
• The genuine pluses, and they’re real: true 3bd / 2 full ba (best layout on the board), a 1999 build (lowest deferred-maintenance risk of any candidate — vs. the 1930s–70s stock), and genuinely cheap tax (~$205/mo).

Bottom line

The verdict flips from a clear no to a viable contender under the new params. At $105k / $2,500, clean 20% down fits (~$95.5k cash, ~$9.5k left) and the all-in lands ~$2,451 — just under the ceiling. On house quality it’s arguably the best spec on the board: a true 3/2, newest build (1999), with low tax. The catch is it’s the top of budget on both axes at once — highest payment ($49 of headroom) and tightest cash — so there’s no margin for a rate uptick, and its fast-rising no-cap assessment will keep nibbling that margin. It’s also priced ~5% over assessed. Viable now, but as the expensive edge of the affordable set: only pursue if the spec premium (3/2, 1999) is worth running this close to the line, and lean on a price nudge toward assessed (~$391k) to rebuild some cushion.